The short answer is – it depends. Ticket prices can fluctuate leading up to a game for a variety of reasons. Generally speaking, ticket prices tend to be highest right when they first go on sale, then they stabilize, and sometimes drop as game day approaches. However, that’s not always the case. Here’s a more in-depth look at how ticket prices change over time and the different factors that influence costs.
How far in advance do tickets go on sale?
This varies by league and team. In most cases, individual game tickets go on sale anywhere from 3-6 months prior to the game itself. However, season ticket holders often get first access to purchase tickets up to a year in advance. Other factors like a new stadium or high demand opponents can make tickets available earlier too.
NBA
NBA teams usually release their schedules for the upcoming season in August. Single game tickets typically go on sale in late September or early October, right before the season starts in mid-October. Teams will announce on their website and social media when the on-sale date is for the public.
NFL
The NFL schedule is announced in April or May. Single game tickets go on sale not long after, usually in July or August. However, presales for season ticket holders, groups, and VIPs can happen months before that.
NHL
NHL teams reveal their schedules in late June or early July. Single game seats often go on public sale in September, about a month before opening night in early October. Start times for games are not set until later in the summer.
MLB
Major League Baseball announces their master schedule in late summer, usually August. Then most teams put single game seats up for grabs in February or March for an April start to the baseball season. Games played later in the season will be available along the way.
When are ticket prices the highest?
Ticket prices are generally highest when they first go on sale to the general public. Teams capitalize on the initial excitement around games being available. Fans eager to ensure they can attend rush to secure seats when tickets launch.
Other factors also contribute to driving costs up when tickets initially go up for sale:
- Opposing team – Games against rivals or popular teams like the Lakers often start more expensive.
- Promotions/giveaways – Bobblehead nights and other special events lift ticket costs.
- Weekends/holidays – Tickets for Friday or Saturday games tend to be pricier than weeknights. Holiday games also cost more.
- Marquee matchups – Big playoff rematches or battles of two title contenders push prices higher.
Season openers, home debuts of star players, and late season rivalry games also command top dollar when tickets first become available. Teams look to maximize revenue, so they price tickets higher initially counting on demand still being strong.
When do ticket prices start to drop?
On average, ticket prices tend to come down or level off around 2-3 weeks before the event. However, like the initial pricing, many factors influence when and how much prices decline.
As the season progresses
Early in the season, especially before a single game has been played, there is a lot more uncertainty and excitement. As teams start playing real games, a few things happen that can lower prices:
- Less uncertainty about team strength – Seeing teams play reveals who looks good or bad, which adjusts demand.
- Schedule quirks smooth out – The early schedule may feature lots of home games driving up initial prices.
- Rivalries and promotions spread out – Marquee games get priced higher but happen less frequently as the season moves along.
With more information about team quality and schedules evening out, extreme early season pricing comes down to earth.
Struggling team
Expectations and hype before the season starts helps drive up initial ticket prices. However, if a team underperforms once games begin, prices can fall quickly. When a team struggles, fans are less eager to pay top dollar, lowering demand and prices.
Reduced inventory
As an event draws near and tickets are purchased, there are fewer left for sale. Lower supply typically would drive prices up. However, brokers and sellers get anxious to unload their remaining seats rather than be stuck with them. To do so, they slash prices as game day nears.
Last minute deals
In addition to brokers dropping prices at the last minute, teams also employ special promotions to sell any remaining seats right before a game. Things like kids free deals, upgrades, discounts, and more help fill any unsold capacity.
When are ticket prices the lowest?
Barring any unusual circumstances, ticket prices generally reach their lowest point within 24-48 hours of the event. Sellers become increasingly motivated to get rid of their remaining tickets since an unsold seat represents a complete loss. Deep discounts get rolled out to sell the last seats.
For high demand major games, prices may remain elevated and not drop much. But for lower profile games, fire sale prices emerge on game day trying to liquidate inventory.
Last minute buyers can sometimes get great deals, but also risk missing out if things sell out. Prices crashing is more likely later in a losing season too.
How much do ticket prices fluctuate over time?
There are no hard and fast rules on exactly how much ticket prices move over the course of a season. The range varies widely depending on many factors like:
- Opponent/game – Prominent opponents command higher prices that remain stabler over time relative to low-profile games.
- Venue size – Larger arenas typically see smaller changes versus lower capacity venues.
- Team performance – Winning teams see less discounts than struggling teams.
- Market size – Big markets like New York see lower volatility versus small markets.
That said, across a large sample of games in major leagues, some general price movement numbers emerge:
| Days Before Game | Avg Price Drop |
|---|---|
| 60 Days Out | 5-10% decrease |
| 30 Days Out | 10-15% decrease |
| 14 Days Out | 15-20% decrease |
| 7 Days Out | 20-25% decrease |
| 48 Hours Out | 25-30%+ decrease |
The biggest price declines come in the final two weeks leading up to an event. And the steepest drop often happens in just the last 48 hours. Certain less desirable games can see even bigger price swings.
Does day of week affect ticket prices?
Yes, games happening on weekends, especially Saturdays, tend to have higher ticket prices than weeknights. Weekend events are in higher demand among fans since more people are free from work and can attend. Higher demand leads to higher prices.
Weeknight games tend to have lower prices on average, especially non-marquee matchups. Midweek games draw smaller crowds with people working and unable to attend. To help fill seats, teams lower prices.
Here is a breakdown of average relative ticket prices by day of the week:
| Day of Week | Average Ticket Price |
|---|---|
| Saturday | 100% (Most Expensive) |
| Friday | 90% |
| Sunday | 85% |
| Thursday | 75% |
| Wednesday | 65% |
| Tuesday | 60% (Least Expensive) |
There are exceptions like holidays boosting non-Saturday prices. But in general, Saturday commands the highest prices, while midweek games see the cheapest ticket costs.
How far ahead should I buy tickets?
There is no perfect time to buy tickets for the lowest prices, but some general guidelines are:
- Right when on sale – Buying early guarantees tickets before selling out. Prices are high, but you lock in seats.
- 1-2 months before – Prices cool off from on sale peak, but inventory is still robust.
- 1-2 weeks out – Big games still pricey, but smaller games get bigger discounts.
- Day before/of – Great last minute deals possible, but very risky with limited options.
Ultimately it depends on your priorities. Locking in a specific seat location warrants buying early when selection is best. Being flexible opens the door to deals closer to the event once prices have fallen.
Should I wait until the last minute?
Trying to time the market bottom and buy at the absolute last minute can yield big savings, but also comes with risks. Here are some tradeoffs to consider:
Potential benefits
- Cheapest prices – Last minute seats often have the deepest discounts trying to sell.
- Opening up capacity – Fans return tickets creating new inventory not previously available.
- peace of mind you will get a ticket if waiting until the last minute to buy. The event hasn’t sold out yet if there are still tickets available leading up.
Potential risks
- Limited options – Best seats are likely gone already closer to event time.
- Sell out chances – Popular games can easily sell out before you get a chance to buy.
- Counterfeits – Higher scam risks buying from third parties last second.
- Stress – Worrying about finding a ticket and procrastinating purchase.
Savvy shoppers can sometimes score great deals at the last minute if willing to accept the risks and uncertainty that comes with waiting.
How can I get the best deals on tickets?
Some tips for finding the lowest prices on tickets:
- Be flexible – Weeknight games and less popular opponents are cheaper.
- Buy groups – Many teams offer group discounts.
- Look for promotions – Check team and retailer sites for special deals.
- Wait for sales – Holiday sales can bring ticket discounts.
- Buy last minute – Day before/of often has huge price drops if available.
- Buy partial seasons – Mini ticket packs typically offer cheaper per seat costs.
Taking advantage of sales and promotions, buying group tickets, and waiting until the last minute are great ways to find deals. Just ensure you buy from official team or retailer sites to avoid fakes.
Should I buy from a ticket reseller or exchange?
Third party resellers like Stubhub and Vivid Seats offer a few advantages and disadvantages versus buying directly from a team:
Potential benefits
- Wider selection – Accumulate tickets from many sellers in one spot.
- Competitive market – Drives lower prices as sellers undercut each other.
- Convenience – Easy shopping experience from anywhere.
Potential downsides
- Higher fees – Resellers add sometimes substantial service fees.
- Counterfeit risk – Higher likelihood of fraudulent/invalid tickets.
- No recourse – You deal with the third party seller, not the team if issues arise.
Exchanges can offer convenience and competitive prices. But buyer protections through official team sites offset reseller risks of invalid tickets or little recourse.
How has COVID-19 impacted ticket prices?
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced ticket prices and sales in recent years:
- Lower demand – Fans reluctant to attend crowded events initially lowered prices.
- Limited capacity – Restrictions on venue attendance availability drove up prices.
- Dynamic pricing – Teams adjusted costs more frequently based on changing conditions.
- New sales patterns – Tickets sold much closer to event as people hesitated to commit early.
The live event industry continues adapting to changes in consumer behavior post-COVID. More flexible ticket purchasing options and closely monitoring public health conditions have become the norm.
Conclusion
Ticket prices fluctuate over the course of a sports season based on many variables. In general, prices are highest initially when tickets first go on sale, then begin decreasing as the event draws nearer. Savvy fans can shop at the right times and take advantage of sales and promotions to get the best deals. While prices are typically lowest right before an event, buying at the last minute also carries risk. Understanding when and why ticket costs move allows you to make informed purchasing decisions.
