Do resale tickets drop in price closer to date?

When it comes to buying tickets for popular live events like concerts, sports games, and theater shows, timing can be everything. Many ticket buyers wonder if resale ticket prices tend to drop as the event date gets closer, allowing them to score last-minute deals. Here’s a quick look at whether resale tickets really do drop in price closer to the event date.

The Short Answer

In general, yes – resale ticket prices often drop in the last few days and hours leading up to an event as sellers scramble to unload their tickets before the event happens. However, price drops are not guaranteed. For very high-demand events, prices can remain steady or even go up near event time.

Examining the Trend of Falling Resale Ticket Prices

Several factors cause the broad trend of declining resale ticket prices as event date nears:

• As the event draws closer, certainty increases that sellers actually have the tickets in-hand and can complete the sale. This reduces risk for buyers.
• With less time left to sell, sellers are more motivated to cut prices to unload tickets rather than get stuck holding unused tickets after the event has passed.
• As ticket inventory dwindles on resale sites, buyers gain leverage to wait for prices to drop.
• Sellers may gradually mark down prices over time if tickets fail to sell at higher prices.

Historical pricing data on sites like SeatGeek and TicketIQ illustrates this downward price trend leading up to events. One TicketIQ analysis of over 1 million tickets for sale on resale sites found an average price drop of 18% in the last 7 days before an event. The steepest declines often happen in the last 48 hours as sellers scramble to sell.

When Ticket Prices Don’t Fall

While the overall trend points toward declining prices over time, it’s not a sure thing. Prices can buck the trend when:

• The event is exceptionally high in demand with low ticket inventory.
• The event is small with little resale inventory to begin with.
• The event is still far enough away that prices remain inflated from initial post-sale speculation.
• The event becomes more popular over time, increasing demand.

Sellers are also less likely to slash prices if they already listed tickets low enough that buyers snatched them up quickly.In these cases, patience may not pay off for buyers hoping for big price drops.

Timing Recommendations for Resale Ticket Buyers

Given the tendency for resale ticket prices to decline over time, here are some tips for timing your ticket purchase:

• Monitor prices leading up to the event using a tracking tool on a resale site. This lets you spot price drops.
• Aim to buy 1-4 weeks out when prices are often falling but inventory is still decent. Don’t wait until the last minute.
• Be ready to pounce when you spot a good deal as it may disappear fast.
• For ultra high-demand events, you may need to buy sooner than later to have the widest selection.
• Set price drop alerts so you’re notified if tickets hit your target price.

While there are no guarantees with the resale ticket market, following the overall downward price trajectory gives you strong odds of scoring tickets below initial asking prices. With the right timing and price monitoring strategy, you can feel confident you snagged a good deal.

Some Example Resale Price Drops on Ticketmaster

Here are some examples of real ticket price drops on Ticketmaster leading up to different live events:

This table demonstrates the potential for resale ticket prices to drop significantly, often 20-40%, in the final month leading up to an event. Sports, concerts, and theater shows all exhibit this trend of declining prices over the last month. The key is flexibility on exact seating in order to access deals.

Savvy buyers who track prices and pounce on deals stand the best chance of securing tickets below original asking prices on the secondary market. While not guaranteed, late-arriving price drops are fairly common occurrences in resale ticketing.

Risks of Waiting Too Long

Despite the general tendency for prices to decline over time, waiting too long to buy tickets comes with some risks:

• Selection is reduced, limiting options for seats/sections.
• The event could sell out completely.
• Prices could actually increase near event time for high-demand events.
• Scammers and other shady sellers emerge trying to dump fake or unusable tickets.

To avoid missing out or scrambling at the last second, start monitoring prices at least 4 weeks out from the event date. This balances taking advantage of price drops with retaining selection and inventory. Don’t wait until the final 48 hours to start looking.

Using Price History to Inform Purchase Timing

Prospective buyers can turn to price tracking tools to understand the historical patterns for a given event. Sites like SeatGeek provide handy glanceable charts showing how resale prices have trended leading up to past instances of the same event.

Observing whether prices dropped steadily, spiked late, or held firm can indicate what to expect for an upcoming event. Historical pricing data is an inexact but useful reference point for informing your purchasing decisions.

If past trends show prices tend to reach their lowest point 3-5 days out for a particular team’s home games, then you can watch for and target that time window. Use the patterns witnessed over past events as a guide.

Beware of Fake or Unusable Late-Listing Tickets

In the last few hours before an event, buyers should exercise caution about deeply discounted ticket listings. Some may turn out to be fake tickets posted by scammers, or tickets already sold that get re-listed fraudulently.

There is also risk of sellers unloading extra copies of tickets already claimed and used by other buyers. When buying at the last second look for trusted sellers with good reviews and guarantees against invalid tickets. Scrutinize list durations and details. Avoid unbelievable bargain prices that seem too good to be true.

Use Caution When Buying the Day Of

Buying resale tickets on the day of an event requires caution. With no time for ticket transfer, you must arrange to meet the seller onsite to complete the handoff. This increases risk of ending up with an invalid ticket or getting scammed.

Vet the seller carefully, confirm they have the tickets in-hand, and only meet in a safe public location at the venue. Many last minute deals still work out fine, but day of purchases introduce uncertainty versus having tickets safely ahead of time. When possible, avoid buying just hours before an event unless absolutely necessary.

How Sellers Can Maximize Profits

For those selling event tickets rather than buying, following the opposite strategy can maximize profits. Some tips include:

• List tickets the moment they go on sale to capitalize on initial demand and scarcity. Price somewhat above face value.
• Gradually drop the price if needed as the event gets closer to incentivize buyers. Don’t wait until the last day.
• For very high-demand events, maintain higher pricing until right before the event.
• Always communicate quickly and exchange tickets ASAP to lock in sales.

Riding the wave of excitement immediately after tickets go onsale combined with proactively managing listings over time often yields the highest sale prices. Patience and strategy on both sides of buying and selling pays off.

Be Ready to Act Fast on Preferred Tickets

Because many resale tickets are scooped up quickly at newly lowered prices, you need to be vigilant. Check back frequently on listing sites leading up to the event. Set up alerts for price drops on desired sections. Be ready to quickly purchase when something becomes available at your target price point.

The most in-demand seat locations often sell fast. Take advantage of pricing tools and act decisively when preferred tickets become available at discount prices. Getting a steaadily declining price is not guaranteed – often it requires preparation and swift action.

Conclusion

Timing is critical to scoring resale ticket deals. While not universally true 100% of the time, the overall trend sees resale prices drop substantially in the final weeks and days leading up to major events.

Savvy buyers can seize this window of opportunity through careful planning and execution. Track prices diligently, understand historical patterns, and be ready to quickly purchase when a discount emerges. Employ patience mixed with decisiveness and you can gain access at highly reduced prices compared to initial listings.

Sellers can also benefit by properly listing and adjusting prices over time. With the right timing and observation of trends, both ticket buyers and sellers can thrive on the secondary market.