Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just looking to have a good time, scoring cheap concert tickets is always a plus. Buying tickets at the last minute often means finding seats that others passed up, simply because demand tends to drop right before showtime. But do prices actually fall as well, or is “last-minute deal” just wishful thinking on the part of procrastinating fans? Let’s take a look at the data and find out.
Why Prices Might Drop Before a Show
There are a few key reasons prices could drop right before a big concert:
Lower Demand
As the event date approaches, there are fewer people still looking to buy tickets. Anyone who was super excited already bought their seats weeks or months in advance. Casual fans or those short on cash may have held out until the last minute hoping for a deal. With fewer people vying for tickets, basic supply and demand would indicate prices should come down.
Sellers Want to Offload Inventory
Venues, ticket brokers, resellers, and season ticket holders are motivated to sell off any remaining seats, even at lower prices. Once the event starts, unsold tickets are worthless. Some money is better than no money, so sellers become more flexible on pricing at the last minute.
Fans Wait for Deals
Savvy fans know that prices often drop as game time approaches. Rather than buy early, they wait until the last 48 hours hoping to score seats below face value. This further reduces demand right before the event, putting downward pressure on prices. Some fans even default on their tickets to re-buy them cheaper later on.
Why Prices Might Not Drop
On the other hand, here are some reasons prices could hold steady or even go up leading into a big concert:
Popular Performers and Sellouts
When it comes to major artists like Beyonce or Taylor Swift, every show is pretty much guaranteed to sell out months in advance. There is zero chance of finding last-minute deals. Even lesser known performers can sell out medium-sized venues consistently, eliminating any supply of cheap seats.
Limited Ticket Inventory
Some concerts are configured with far fewer seats than maximum venue capacity. The most expensive “VIP” tickets take up a large chunk of available inventory. Unless the performer drastically cuts prices across the board, which is rare, there just aren’t enough cheap seats out there to drive down averages.
Speculators Grab Tickets
Ticket brokers, scalpers, and other professional resellers often employ bots and automated programs to buy up big blocks of seats the moment they go on sale. This further restricts supply, letting them mark up prices significantly leading up to the event. Anti-scalping laws have limited effectiveness.
High Demand Near Sellout
As an event approaches sellout status, remaining tickets become highly coveted. Scarcity and exclusivity actually drive prices up in these final days. Die-hard fans see the scarce inventory as their last chance to attend.
Does Day-Before-Event Pricing Vary by Performer?
Certain types of concerts are more likely to see price drops right before showtime. Let’s compare pricing trends for major performers with different fan demographics and styles.
Pop Stars (Ex. Ariana Grande, Ed Sheeran)
Pop stars with young, enthusiastic fan bases consistently sell out arenas months in advance. Remaining seats are resold at high markups. Prices for these artists tend to skyrocket in the final 48 hours as die-hard fans snap up what’s left.
Heritage Acts (Ex. The Rolling Stones, Elton John)
Legendary heritage acts playing their “last ever tour” have no problem packing stadiums. Their ubiquitous appeal across generations all but guarantees sellouts. Don’t expect last-minute deals. If anything, prices tend to increase right before the event.
DJs (Ex. Tiesto, Diplo, Zedd)
Unless it’s a famous name playing a tiny club, most mainstream EDM shows will sell out in advance. With their young, frenzied fan base paying top dollar for the “ultimate experience”, deals won’t materialize at the last second.
Comedians (Ex. Jerry Seinfeld, Kevin Hart)
Comedy shows are a mixed bag, depending on the performer’s mainstream appeal. Well-known comedians consistently sell out large venues like MSG. But smaller comics may struggle to fill seats, leading to last-minute deals in some cases.
Rappers (Ex. Drake, Kendrick Lamar, J. Cole)
Hip hop remains hugely popular, but most rappers have a more limited fan base than general pop stars. Outside of true A-listers playing arenas, many shows don’t instantly sell out. Last-minute deals can be found as promoters try to fill seats.
Country Stars (Ex. Luke Bryan, Florida Georgia Line)
The country fanbase is large but geographically limited. Most acts rely on the South/Midwest for their tour calendar. This leads to last-minute discounts on unsold seats in areas with lower demand. But prices remain high in their core markets.
Jam Bands (Ex. Phish, Dead & Co., Dave Matthews Band)
Jam band fans are used to buying tickets last-minute or even at the door. Martket-savvy promoters often hold back inventory until the final week, then release seats at below-average prices to spark sales. This satisfies fans’ bargain hunting mindset.
As we can see, the day-before discount effect, or lack thereof, depends heavily on the artist. Broadly popular performers with enthusiastic fans see prices go up in the final hours as die-hards vie for a limited supply of tickets. More niche acts often have ample supply, allowing promoters to cut prices to stimulate sales.
Does Day-Before-Event Pricing Vary by Venue?
Beyond the performer, venue characteristics also impact the availability of last-minute deals. Certain venues are structured to all but eliminate cheap seats; others make deals more likely in the final hours.
| Venue Type | Last-Minute Discount Likelihood |
|---|---|
| Major Arenas (18,000+ capacity) | Low |
| Amphitheaters (5,000-20,000 capacity) | Moderate |
| Theaters (1,500-6,500 capacity) | High |
| Clubs (Under 2,000 capacity) | High |
Larger venues host the biggest acts with the most ravenous fan bases, leading to sold out status. Theaters and clubs rely more on niche performers where demand is harder to predict. Their flexible capacity and smaller average order size also makes last-minute discounts more feasible.
Outdoor amphitheaters are a middle ground. While popular bands sell out, others may leave ample room for deals on lawn seating. And unpredictable weather can impact sales right before showtime as well.
Does Day-Before-Event Pricing Vary by City?
Beyond the venue itself, the location of the concert is a factor in last-minute pricing trends. Certain cities have higher baseline demand, limiting discount availability.
| City Type | Last-Minute Discount Likelihood |
|---|---|
| Major Markets (LA, NYC, Chicago) | Low |
| Secondary Markets (Houston, Detroit, DC) | Moderate |
| Tertiary Markets (Omaha, Tucson, Boise) | High |
Major cities host the most concerts with consistent sellouts across genres. Secondary markets have fewer shows and more variable demand. Tertiary cities rely on niche acts where last-minute deals are more common. Promoters must work harder to fill seats in these locations.
Beyond overall market size, the local enthusiasm for certain genres also impacts last-minute availability. Scoring deals on country concerts will be easier in Dallas than Seattle, for example.
Does Event Day Itself Impact Pricing Trends?
Last-minute concert pricing also fluctuates based on the event day. Weekends and holidays typically drive prices up as demand swells among casual fans. Weeknights often mean better deals as fewer people can justify attending on a work/school night.
| Event Day | Last-Minute Discount Likelihood |
|---|---|
| Weekend (Fri – Sun) | Low |
| Weeknight (Mon – Thurs) | Moderate |
| Holidays | Low |
Likewise, timing during the year impacts demand. Concerts in peak season – basically May through September – are more likely to sell out in advance. Off-season shows may have ample last-minute deals, especially for niche acts.
Does Section/Seat Location Impact Last-Minute Pricing?
Not all seats are created equal when it comes to last-minute discounts. Certain sections and seat locations are more likely to have deals:
Nosebleeds
The highest rows and farthest corners are the easiest seats to buy at low prices as game time nears. Demand for nosebleeds is lower overall, and these are the last seats brokers and resellers will unload if needing to cut prices.
Obstructed Views
Seats with an obstructed or limited view of the stage offer less appeal to buyers. But for bargain hunters just looking to get in the door, obstructed seats are prime targets for last-minute deals.
Single Seats
Most fans buy multiple seats together, meaning singles are harder to sell. As brokers break up pairs to cut losses, scattered single seats emerge below face value at the last minute.
How Fans Can Find Last-Minute Concert Deals
If you’re looking to score discounted concert tickets at the last minute, here are some tips and strategies:
Use Ticket Websites
Aggregators like Ticketmaster and Stubhub are a good starting point. Sort seats from low to high price and scour the cheapest options. Listings will constantly change until sellout.
Buy at the Box Office
If visiting the venue box office last-minute, you can avoid pesky fees and compete only with other in-person buyers. Hours before showtime is key.
Work With Brokers
Established ticket brokers have last-minute inventory they’re looking to unload at a discount. Let them know your budget limitations and be flexible.
Watch Social Media
Follow fan groups and venue accounts for specials or coupon codes as showtime nears. Promoters will hype last-minute deals this way before public listings.
Wait Until the Last Minute
Prices usually drop dramatically in the final 3-6 hours as sellers panic. Be ready to make impulse buys via mobile app right before showtime.
Consider Resale Sites
Fans can resell tickets below market value as plans change. Check Craigslist, Facebook Groups, Reddit, and other direct resale platforms.
How Concert Promoters Drive Last-Minute Sales
On the other side of the coin, here are some tactics used by venues, promoters, and ticket sellers to boost last-minute sales:
Timed Promo Codes
Codes for 5-10% off are blasted by email and social media in the last 48 hours. Gives urgency to buyers on the fence.
Targeted Social Media Ads
Ads with custom pricing are micro-targeted to certain fan demographics in the local area as showtime approaches.
Price Cutting on Unsold Seats
Select seats have prices manually lowered to stimulate pickup from bargain shoppers. Special deals may be offered by phone/in-person only.
BOGO and Group Discounts
Various “buy-one-get-one” offers tempt larger purchases. People buying in pairs or groups get better pricing.
Fees Waived on Remaining Tickets
Reducing/removing service fees is an easy way to make base prices suddenly look lower without changing the core economics.
Onsite Sales and Upgrades
Deeply discounted offerings are advertised to attendees already entering the venue to capture impulse purchases and increase spending.
Wholesale Inventory Dumping
Remaining inventory is wholesaled to third parties who can then use aggressive tactics to resell below cost and recoup something.
Conclusion
In general, truly significant last-minute deals on concert tickets are far from guaranteed. The biggest artists and prime venues will sell out quickly, leaving few discounts. But for more niche shows in smaller markets, fans can often save 25% or more on seats in the days and hours leading up to showtime.
Being flexible on dates and seat locations, and using promotional codes, are the best ways to score while avoiding exorbitant fees and sketchy resellers. The key is tracking ticket listings closely as availability dwindles, and pouncing when prices dip on the secondary market. While not a sure thing, persistence and planning can pay off for bargain-minded concert-goers.