This is a common question that many concert-goers have when looking to purchase tickets. There are a few factors that impact ticket prices as the event date approaches. In general, ticket prices tend to go down the closer you get to the day of the show, but not always. Supply and demand economics drive the market, so it really depends on the artist and venue. Let’s take a deeper look at why prices fluctuate leading up to the big day.
Ticket Resale Market Dynamics
To understand if ticket prices drop, you need to know how the ticket resale market works. Once the initial sale from the box office is over, tickets enter the secondary market. This is where resellers and ticket brokers buy up tickets and relist them, often at higher prices to turn a profit. As the event nears, the laws of supply and demand take over. There are a few key dynamics at play:
High Demand, Low Supply
If a show is very popular and largely sold out, demand remains high while supply is low. There are few tickets available, so prices typically stay high or even increase as die-hard fans scramble to secure seats. Brokers capitalize on the scarcity to earn more. Madonna or U2 concert tickets, for example, would likely hold value or go up in price closer to the show.
Low Demand, High Supply
Alternatively, less popular events that still have many unsold tickets see prices drop as the event approaches. When demand is lower than expected, the ample supply of tickets on the secondary market drives prices down. Resellers lower costs trying to offload tickets and recoup some money. This often happens with more niche music genres or bands with waning mainstream popularity.
Venue Sell-Offs
Venues will also unload unsold tickets for cheap last-minute sales. They would rather fill all the seats and make concessions revenue, even at lower ticket revenue. So box office fire sales near the event also bring more supply to the market, reducing prices.
When Do Prices Typically Decline?
Given the dynamics above, when can you expect to see the steepest declines in ticket prices as concert day approaches?
1-2 Weeks Out
In most cases, the two weeks leading up to the event is when you’ll find prices bottom out. This is often when sellers start feeling the pressure to unload tickets before the event happens. Many also know informed buyers are tracking price trends too, so they realize they need to reduce costs to attract business.
2-3 Days Out
In the final 72 hours, you can find even deeper discounts as resellers practically try to give tickets away to at least earn something. Of course, buying this close is risky if tickets are still needed. But for buyers that can swoop in at the last minute, major savings are possible.
Day Of Show
The day of the concert typically sees the cheapest prices, often up to 75% below initial list prices. But there is no guarantee of availability hours before showtime. Eager fans snatch up the last-minute deals. Prices can rebound too if remaining ticket demand still outweighs supply.
Other Factors Impacting Prices
Beyond the general trends, there are some other factors that affect the price movements for concert tickets as event day approaches:
Artist Popularity
As mentioned earlier, prices hold up best for wildly popular mainstream artists like Taylor Swift or Bruce Springsteen. There are more buyers chasing fewer tickets, so costs decline slower.
Tour Length
For tours with many dates and cities, prices tend to drop more as there are more opportunities to see the act. Shorter tours or one-off shows maintain demand and value better.
Location and Venue Size
Ticket prices in major metro areas also tend to hold up better than rural regions. Larger stadium and arena shows also keep resale prices higher than smaller theater shows.
VIP Packages
These premium ticket bundles from the box office tend not to see discounts. There is already scarcity value with these exclusive offers like meet and greets.
Market Conditions
Macro factors like the economy, unemployment, consumer confidence, and gas prices also influence the concert industry. Hard times reduce demand and prices.
Where To Buy Tickets Closer to Showtime
If aiming to score last-minute concert deals, here are some reputable places to shop as show day nears:
Official Box Office
Check the venue box office site directly for any unsold seats they release at discounts. Many sell these tickets at the door on event day too.
Fan Resale Sites
Major ticket resale marketplaces like StubHub, VividSeats and SeatGeek see volume tick up as sellers cut prices. Comparison shop across sites.
Band and Artist Presales
Social media presales are common last-minute promotions, especially via fan clubs. Follow your favorite acts online for special offers.
Facebook Groups
Join fan groups and subreddits where people often exchange extra tickets as events approach.
Craigslist
Scour the tickets sections and you can sometimes find amazing deals from folks just looking to unload seats.
Be Wary of Scams
While great deals abound closer to shows, also be wary of ticket scams:
– Only buy from trusted vendors and platforms. Research sellers.
– If a price seems too good to be true, it probably is. Stick to reasonable discounts.
– Inspect ticket details carefully before purchase. Make sure info matches event details.
– Pay via safe provider like PayPal. Avoid direct bank transfers with strangers.
– Ask questions and request proof of ticket ownership if unsure.
– Use common sense precautions to avoid fraud and risk losing money.
Should You Buy Early or Wait?
Here are some quick pros and cons of buying concert tickets far in advance versus waiting:
Buy Early
– Lock in tickets during initial on-sales at face value prices
– Access to better seat selections in early sales
– Avoid missing out on sellouts for hot shows
– Peace of mind knowing you have tickets secured
Wait to Buy
– Potentially substantial savings off face value prices
– See if more dates get added later to increase supply
– Assess if you still want to attend as event nears
– Avoid tying up money too far in advance
There are merits to both approaches. In general, buying earlier reduces risk but costs more. Waiting could net big savings but has uncertainty on availability.
Tracking Price Trends Over Time
It can be helpful to track ticket listing prices over the many weeks leading up to an event. This gives insight into when the best time to purchase may be based on real market data.
Here is sample concert ticket price and availability data starting eight weeks out from a show and moving closer to event day:
| Weeks Out | Average Listing Price | Number of Listings |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Weeks | $150 | 250 |
| 6 Weeks | $140 | 500 |
| 4 Weeks | $120 | 850 |
| 2 Weeks | $100 | 1200 |
| 72 Hours | $75 | 1500 |
| 24 Hours | $50 | 1700 |
You can see that more listings hit the secondary market as event day approached. Prices also dropped steadily week after week, with the steepest discounts in the final three days. Monitoring this data leading up to buying can help score the best seats for the lowest prices.
Predicting Future Price Changes
It’s difficult to predict exactly how prices will fluctuate for a specific event, but some general assumptions can be made:
– Hot shows from top artists like Beyonce will hold value and may even increase late. Think twice before waiting too long.
– Niche and lesser known acts will see gradual declines over time. Patience often pays off.
– Weekday shows and off-peak times have softer demand and will see greater declines.
– Larger arena shows will hold prices better than smaller venues.
– Cities like Los Angeles and New York will maintain prices while rural areas soften more.
– Holiday and special event weekends keep demand higher than typical nights.
– Poor weather forecasts right before outdoor concerts reduce demand.
– Emerging artists announcing bigger tours after initial onsales adds supply and lowers prices.
While not guarantees, these trends help set expectations on whether waiting for deals is wise or not. Buy early for the really hot events!
Comparing Resale Sites for Best Prices
Rather than limiting your search to just one resale site, comparing listings across multiple platforms can help uncover the lowest prices. Each seller sets their own price, so shopping across sites takes effort but pays off.
Here are some example listings for an arena concert taking place in two weeks across four major resale platforms:
| Section | SeatGeek | StubHub | VividSeats | Ticketmaster |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor A | $175 | $250 | $225 | $175 |
| Lower Level B | $150 | $150 | $125 | $150 |
| Upper Level C | $100 | $75 | $100 | $75 |
As you can see, pricing varies site to site even on identical inventory. Checking multiple sources ensures you find the best deals. Signing up for price alerts and tracking helps too.
Estimating the Best Time to Buy
When is the optimal time to purchase concert tickets for the lowest prices? Here are some rough estimates:
– Top Artists: Buy during initial sales up to 4 weeks out to secure seats before they sell out and prices jump.
– Established Acts: 4-8 weeks out you’ll still get fair face value prices before declines kick in.
– Rising Stars: 6-12 weeks out as demand builds momentum but supply is still decent.
– Niche Genres: 8-16 weeks out prices will hold but deals emerge within a few months.
– Obscure Artists: Anytime up to a month out supply will outweigh demand allowing great deals.
Of course, adjust based on your personal concerns like budget, seating preferences, and schedule flexibility. But use these general timelines as a guide for when to buy at different demand levels.
Using Presales to Buy Before General Public
Getting ahead of the masses by using presales is a smart way to get tickets for less than general public prices. Here are some tips:
– Check artist fan club and VIP presales by joining mailing lists in advance. These are the earliest sales.
– Follow preferred venues and promoters on social media for presale code giveaways.
– Sign up for free trial memberships at Amex, Spotify, YouTube Music etc for presale window access.
– Leverage presales to secure seats then keep seeking better deals as general sales open up.
– Set calendar alerts for all presale dates as they are announced to remember to check back.
Buying early via presales provides you tickets to then shop around with later. And you’ll still pay less than last-minute constrained buyers that missed presales.
When Presales Make Sense Over General Public
Here are some instances when trying for presale tickets over general public onsales is advisable:
– Red Hot Concerts: High demand shows will have limited tickets for general public so presale gives you first shot.
– Front Row Seating: Presales often reserve the closest seats for early buyers before they are gone.
– VIP Packages: Special experiences like meet and greets sell out fast. Presales provide access.
– Peace of Mind: For your must-see shows, presales eliminate the risk of missing out later.
– Gift Buying: If getting tickets for others, buying early locks in memorable seats for gifting.
– Holiday Events: Presales let you secure tickets to big holiday concerts before public onsales sell out.
Take advantage of presale opportunities whenever the event is a high priority to gain an advantage over the masses.
Comparing Dynamic Pricing vs Fixed Pricing
Some concerts now use dynamic pricing models where ticket prices fluctuate based on demand. This differs from fixed price models. Here is a comparison:
Dynamic Pricing:
– Prices change actively based on market demand signals
– Provides insights into real ticket value crowds are willing to pay
– Rewards early buyers that lock in lower prices
– Can frustrate buyers with constant price shifts
– Complex to track when prices are lowest
Fixed Pricing:
– Set static ticket prices regardless of demand
– Simpler for buyers to understand and budget for
– Possible to under or overprice tickets relative to demand
– Requires forecasting ideal prices way in advance
– Secondary market takes over responding to demand
Savvy buyers can take advantage of dynamic pricing dips, while fixed pricing carries lower risk. Knowing the event pricing model helps inform buying.
Buying Groups of Tickets
For concerts with a high per-ticket price, buyers can save substantially by purchasing tickets in bulk groups. Things to keep in mind:
– Most venues allow buying 6-8 tickets at once for your group.
– Presales may temporarily limit groups to 2-4 tickets before general onsales.
– Sit together by buying all tickets in a single transaction.
– Ticket transfer and resale gets harder with large groups, especially different rows.
– Dividing larger groups into smaller purchases can maximize seating options.
– Explore group discounts for 10+ tickets from official platinum programs.
Group concert-going is a fun experience. Carefully plan your collective ticket buying strategy ahead of onsales for the best experience.
Conclusion
While it varies event to event, concert tickets do tend to get cheaper the closer you get to showtime. The most substantial discounts arrive in the final 1-2 weeks leading up to the event as sellers slash prices. But popular shows may hold value longer, so buy early if it is a hot event. Weigh the trade-offs of buying tickets ASAP vs waiting based on demand factors, presale options, resale marketplaces, and more. With some strategic timing, you can score amazing deals on concert tickets as game day arrives.
