Many concert goers wonder if ticket prices tend to drop as the event date approaches. The short answer is sometimes, but not always. Ticket prices can fluctuate leading up to the day of the show, but whether they go up or down depends on many factors.
Reasons Ticket Prices May Drop
Here are some of the key reasons ticket prices could potentially decrease close to the event:
Lower Than Expected Demand
If ticket sales are sluggish, the promoters may lower prices to try to boost interest and fill more seats. This is more likely for smaller venues or less popular performers. Headlining acts in big arenas rarely have issues with low demand.
Last Minute Ticket Releases
Venues sometimes hold back a batch of tickets to release close to the event date. This can increase supply temporarily and lead to lower prices. These are often limited view seats or spots far from the stage.
Difficulty Reselling Tickets
If the resale market has a surplus of tickets, resellers may have no choice but to cut prices to unload their excess inventory. Buyers can swoop in and grab deals.
Promotions and Discounts
Promoters want to create buzz and excitement leading up to the event. Special deals like flash sales, 2-for-1 ticket offers, and other promotions can cause temporary drops in prices.
Reasons Ticket Prices May Rise
On the flip side, here are some of the key factors that can cause prices to go up as concert dates approach:
Underestimated Demand
Sometimes the promoters realize too late that there is much higher demand than expected. As tickets sell out fast, scarcity leads to higher prices on the secondary market.
Smaller Venues
At smaller clubs with capacities under 1,000, there are fewer tickets available to begin with. These scarce tickets become more coveted over time.
Hot Performers
Certain artists like Beyonce or Taylor Swift have immense drawing power. Their concert tickets remain in ultra-high demand right up to showtime. Prices stay elevated.
Buzz Building
As positive press builds and word of mouth grows, demand for tickets also increases. This drives up resale prices closer to the event.
Tips for Finding Last Minute Deals
If you want to score deals on concert tickets as the event approaches, here are some tips:
Check Primary Ticket Sites
Watch official ticket seller sites for last minute markdowns and special offers. Sign up for presale codes and fan clubs too.
Try Reseller Sites
StubHub, Vivid Seats, and other reseller marketplaces can have deals, especially a few days before the show. Compare prices across sites.
Wait Until the Last Minute
Prices often drop dramatically in the final 24-48 hours as sellers panic and slash prices. However, there is risk of missing out.
Be Flexible
If the specific date or seat location isn’t a deal-breaker, you have more options. Weekday shows and upper level seats tend to be cheaper.
Buy Single Tickets
Singles tend to be more discounted than pairs. Either split up or try to buy seats together from different sellers.
Case Study: Rolling Stones No Filter Tour
The best way to understand the dynamics of concert ticket pricing is to look at a real example. Let’s analyze the ticket data leading up to one of The Rolling Stones’ 2018 No Filter tour stops.
On November 17, 2018 they played at Texas Stadium in Arlington, TX, a venue with a capacity of 80,000. Here is a look at how average resale ticket prices for the show fluctuated in the months and weeks leading up to it:
Days Until Show | Average Resale Price |
---|---|
178 | $325 |
119 | $362 |
99 | $381 |
14 | $412 |
7 | $476 |
3 | $537 |
Some key observations:
– Prices rose consistently as the event date approached. No major last minute deals.
– Demand exceeded expectations, leading to higher prices over time.
– The surge was steepest in the final 2 weeks, as demand peaked.
– By showtime, prices were 65% above initial levels 6 months out.
This case illustrates how prices for hot shows at big venues tend to rise over time, rather than fall. Savvy fans buy early before the frenzy starts. Last minute shoppers end up paying premium prices.
Predicting Last Minute Ticket Price Changes
It’s impossible to predict with 100% certainty whether prices for a given show will go up or down as it approaches. However, here are some key factors that can offer clues:
– Artist popularity – Big names tend to bring steadily rising demand. Smaller acts have higher risk of weak sales and price drops.
– Venue size – Large arenas with huge capacities are less likely to sell out and have last minute price surges. At small clubs, prices often rise over time.
– Tour hype – Major promotions and positive media coverage drive increasing excitement and demand. This usually translates to rising prices.
– Pre-sale demand – Early sales metrics indicate the baseline demand level. Strong early sales tend to foreshadow continued demand growth. Weak demand early on increases likelihood of later discounts.
– Location – Cities with large populations and limited concert options tend to have aggressive demand. Smaller markets may need discounts to fill seats.
– Competition – Many events on the same night in a city dilute demand across the options. Less competition means higher demand for each show.
– On-sale date – Later on-sales have less advance notice. This limits early sales, so prices often start lower and rise over time. Early on-sales capture initial demand surge quickly so have less room for growth.
While not completely foolproof, assessing these key factors can help gauge the likelihood of late discounts versus continued price growth. Proactive concert shoppers take these factors into account when timing their ticket purchases.
Should You Buy Concert Tickets Last Minute?
Based on the analysis above, here are some recommendations on optimal timing for concert ticket purchases:
Buy Early For Hot Shows
If demand is expected to be high, popular performers, and major venues, buy as soon as tickets go on sale. Prices almost always go up over time for big events. Take advantage of presales to get seats before the general public.
Be Patient For Lower Demand Shows
If the event is not a hot ticket, monitor prices and wait. There is a decent chance additional tickets or promotions will be released later on to boost sales. Jumping on those deals can bring big savings versus buying months in advance.
Stalk Resale Sites Late
As the event date nears, keep checking resale sites for desperation discounts. Sellers may slash prices at the last minute to recoup at least some of their investment on unused tickets.
Consider All Factors
The artist, venue, market size, hype level, competition, and on-sale date all impact pricing trends. Research these factors to estimate whether waiting will pay off or not. Time your ticket buying strategy accordingly.
Conclusion
While concert tickets sometimes get discounted last minute, counting on prices to drop is an unreliable strategy. For hot shows, demand tends to drive prices up over time. However, for lower interest events, ample ticket availability can lead to deals near showtime. Understand the key pricing factors at play to make informed timing decisions. With preparation and research, you can balance cost savings with getting the seats you want.